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Texas Hold'em Intermediate Strategy Guide

In this chapter more intermediate aspects of the game will be covered including 'Pot Odds' and calculating whether it is worth staying in or folding, working out the chance of getting the card you need to make a strong or top hand and also post-flop play.

Pots Odds

Due to only one deck of cards being in play during a game of poker the odds of certain cards can be worked out; this means there is a mathematical side to poker which can be used along with your own judgement to help you make the right decisions.

'Pot Odds' are worked out using the current pot amount and the current bet and so they can also be calculated. Combining this with the probability of the cards you want/need to win coming out, can help you make better decisions. For example waiting for one card to come out to make a hand such as a Straight with only a high card to win otherwise, for the chance of winning a very large pot with high bets is not worth calling and staying in.

Say the current pot amount is $20 and a bet of $5 has been placed, it will cost you $5 to stay in a play your hand with odds of 4 to 1; this is not the odds of winning, simply how the pay to play ratio. If the odds were 2 to 1 then it is less worth playing as you would be only winning double your bet not quadruple.

Odd of Making Your Hand

This is also known as working out your 'Outs', which means any card that will make you your hand is an Out. For example if you have two Spades and two more Spades come out in the Flop and your best winning hand would be a Flush, then there is a possibility of nine 'Outs' (which would be any of the remaining Spades) to be dealt to complete your hand. Now you could work out the exact probability of a Spade being dealt and there are also tables and calculators online that can do this for you, however playing at a table offline may make this hard. One simple rule which is not completely accurate but can definitely help is to multiple the number of Outs by 4. This would be after the Flop has been dealt and is the rough probability of being dealt one of your cards on either the Turn or River card. If you multiple by 2 it would be the probability of being dealt one of your cards on the next card only. Again this is only a rough guide but along with the Pot Odds can help you make better judgement.

Using Both Pot Odds and Outs Probabilities

Say your Pot Odds are around 4 to 1 or 25% and the probability of being dealt your winning card is only 10% then it is probably not worth playing any further as it means you are paying 25% of the pot to hopefully make a 10% card.

Another example may be having Pot Odds of around 10 to 1 or 10% and probability of being dealt your winning card 20%. In this example if would be worth staying in as you have a good chance of making your hand and it's not costing you much and you will be winning 10 times what you are betting.

Some Key Points:
Remember working out Pot Odds and Outs is one thing but betting could also be going on after each round. A good decision to stay in due to odds being in your favour may not be the best thing to do if a player bets too high. A higher bet will create more risk, ask yourself, is it worth it? Are the odds still good enough?

Betting Post-Flop

Obviously dependent on how players play your bets to make them do different things will vary. Normally speaking a bet equal to half the pot or higher will make other players fold they hand.

An example: You have the highest pair out but there's a possibility of a Flush after the Flop has been dealt. If you bet 25% of the pot amount others may call this if they have 4 cards of the same suit; thus a possibility of making their Flush. The chance of being dealt a Flush Post-Flop is around 35%. They have a strong chance of winning 4 times their bet.

The same example but with a different way of betting: This time you bet 50% the pot amount, a very large bet which already could scare the other players and make them fold. For the players who are thinking more mathematically they have a strong chance still of making their Flush however are betting 50% the pot amount (twice as much as before) for a win of only twice their bet.

If you were to bet even higher than this, perhaps 75% the pot amount depending on the cards dealt players may either Fold or could assume you are bluffing and stay in, especially if they know they have the highest possible hand out; be aware of this.

Positioning Post-Flop

Positioning is important as mentioned earlier however even more so after the Flop has been dealt; consider the following scenario: You have a strong hand from the start but after the Flop you still haven't made anything and there are possibilities of other players already having a better hand than you.

Outcome 1: Your first to act and because you have a strong hand you make an aggressive bet and see how the other players react. They call and so you assume they did have that better hand you were afraid of. In this case you tested their reaction with a bet which would have been enough to look strong and make them Fold if they had nothing, however due to them calling you assumed they did have something and wisely folded as more money would have no doubt been betted after the Turn and River, meaning more money wasted for you and no guarantee of a winning hand.

Outcome 2: You in last position and due to another player making a hand after the Flop they make an aggressive bet (instead of you). All the other players call because they fancy their chances however you have strong cards but have made nothing and there's only the Turn and River card to go. You Fold and save your money for another hand. Here there are two outcomes out of many other possible ones with the same scenario, with players having the same cards dealt but being in different positions. Being in a late position can mean you can see what everybody else does first before you react which can save you money however being in an early position can mean you can put in aggressive bets whether your bluffing or not and gage other reactions to see whether its worth continuing or Folding and cutting your losses.

Some Key Points:
Mathematics is something to consider and may make you stay in on a hand which normally you wouldn't, don't just use this factor to make all your calls.
In a hand where you would normally Fold consider the Pot-Odds and Outs, it may be worth risking a little bit of money, you may win a large pot for not much risk.
Remember players will have certain betting styles and patterns which won't make sense as to why they are betting or playing a certain way mathematically, pay attention to these as they may help you win big and leave them wondering why they didn't.
You may be playing very weak players and very strong players at one table, any one of these players may mess up your way of playing, recognise this and adapt accordingly.

More coming soon...